Hi Dick,

I agree 100% with you that for estimation, especially for business-critical solutions, a reasonable base of experience is vital.

What the 50/90 estimation technique in my opinion provides, due to multiple estimates and emphasis on determining confidence, is a more reliable reality check if the team is equipped to take on the work compared to traditional estimates that don’t express confidence. It forces the team identify complexities, risks, and unknowns. If the outcome is that their confidence is low, they have the specifics to better articulate challenges to their financial sponsor and scope the R&D required to build confidence.

So, it’s not a silver bullet to perfect estimates or replacement for R&D, but I feel it can be a beneficial tool for teams to realize they need R&D during the refinement and estimation process.

One thing I just now realize I have not mentioned in my blog is that need for psychological safety (feeling the freedom to bring up all complexities, risks, and unknowns always without negative consequences). That’s vitally important for many aspects of a successful team beyond just estimation, but relevant, nonetheless.

In conclusion, I think we’re on the same page Dick on the importance of R&D. I will put your blog on my reading list for the weekend :)